If I download Ares, what are the chances that I will be prosecuted for stealing music?

The odds are very slim. At the same time, every person who has been sued believed they were safe. Think about the possible long term effects. If you get sued for illegal downloading you will end up paying thousands of dollars in fines. The lawsuit will remain on your credit record and will be a roadblock to getting credit in the future. Many employers ask if you have ever been party to a lawsuit - being sued for stealing music is a good way to make an employer decide not to hire you. All of this because you didn't want to pay less than a dollar per song. Heck, I've bought used CDs at Amazon for less than a dollar.